Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Another Weaker Than Expected Durable Goods Order Portends Weaker Than Expected GDP

Inquiring minds are investigating Trends in Durable Goods Orders.

Key Durable Goods Numbers

  1. February orders increased 2.2 percent but economists expected a 3 percent rise.
  2. January durable goods orders fell 3.6 percent.
  3. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.2 percent. Analysts' expected of a 2.0 percent gain.
  4. Non-defense capital goods' orders fell 5.2 percent in January.
  5. Excluding transportation which had an unsustainable sharp increase in civilian plane orders, durable goods orders were only up 1.6%. 
  6. Boeing received 237 aircraft orders in February, up from 150 in January, accounting for the 3.9 percent jump in transportation orders.
  7. Motor vehicles and parts orders rose 1.6%.
  8. Inventories of manufactured durable goods rose for the twenty-six consecutive month and are now at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992

High inventories and falling demand for non-defense capital goods' orders does not portend well for future GDP growth.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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